The Conservatives are predicted to survive in Romsey but only by a tiny margin, according to a new election poll. 

More in Common has released a new poll that shows Labour will win 406 seats in the General Election on 4 July - a majority of 162, while the Conservatives are expected to hold just 155 seats.

In Romsey and Southampton North, the Conservatives will hold onto the seat but only by 0.1 per cent of the vote share.

Conservative candidate Caroline Nokes Conservative candidate Caroline Nokes (Image: Contributed) Conservative candidate, Caroline Nokes, who has held the seat since it was created in 2010, is predicted to win with 38.2 per cent of votes.

Meanwhile, Liberal Democrat candidate, Geoff Cooper, is forecast to be second with 38.1 per cent of votes. 

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Geoff Cooper who is the Liberal Democrat candidateGeoff Cooper who is the Liberal Democrat candidate (Image: Contributed)

Labour, represented by Christie Lambert, is forecast to get 13.9 per cent of votes.

Paul Barrett for Reform UK is predicted to get 5.6 per cent of the votes and 2.2 per cent of votes will go to Green candidate Connor Shaw.

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Labour candidate Christie LambertLabour candidate Christie Lambert (Image: Christie Lambert) Other candidates, such as independent candidate Fenni Yap, is predicted to receive 2 per cent of votes.

The survey is based on MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification analysis), which is less effective at predicting seat distribution for smaller parties. 

It uses data from a voting intention poll to model how people will vote based on their demographics, voting behaviour and information about their constituency.

aul Barrett (L) and Fennie Yap (R) are standing in the electionPaul Barrett (L) and Fennie Yap (R) are standing in the election (Image: Contributed)

These results are then applied to the demographic and electoral makeup of each constituency to make a constituency-level prediction. 

More in Common adds: "MRP models don’t account for local factors that impact a small number of constituencies, such as a popular incumbent, well-known or controversial council policy Therefore it would be a mistake to draw too much from the projected vote share in an individual constituency."