General election poll predicts Winchester election results

More in Common has released a new poll that shows Labour will win 406 seats in the General Election on 4 July - a majority of 162, while the Conservatives are expected to hold just 155 seats.

In Winchester, the poll predicts that the Liberal Democrats will gain the seat from the Conservatives who have held the seat since 2010. It was a Lib Dem seat between 1997 and 2010. Labour last won the seat in 1945 when the constituency included Eastleigh.

READ MORE: Who is standing to be Winchester's next MP?

Danny Chambers is the Liberal Democrat candidate (Image: Contributed) Danny Chambers, the Liberal Democrat candidate, is forecast to receive 58.6 per cent of the votes - winning the seat by a margin of 28.4 per cent. 

At the last general election in 2019, Conservative MP Steve Brine won with 48.3 per cent of the votes. This year, however, Conservative candidate, Flick Drummond, is predicted to receive just 30.3 per cent of the votes on July 4. 

The Conservative candidate Flick Drummond (Image: Contributed) Labour candidate, Hannah Dawson, is predicted to get 4.3 per cent of the votes, with many people voting tactically.

Meanwhile 3.6 per cent of votes are forecast to go to Sean Whelan for Reform UK and Lorraine Estelle representing the Greens will receive just 1.9 per cent.

SEE MORE: Winchester election candidate describes hustings snub as 'scandalous' 

Labour candidate Hannah Dawson (Image: Contributed) Other candidates standing for election are expected to get 1.3 per cent of the vote share. 

Also standing in the Winchester seat are: Chris Barfoot (Independent), Kevin D'Cruze (Independent), Andrew Davis (Social Democratic Party), and Andy Liming (Hampshire Independents).

The survey is based on MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification analysis), which is less effective at predicting seat distribution for smaller parties. 

It uses data from a voting intention poll to model how people will vote based on their demographics, voting behaviour and information about their constituency.

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These results are then applied to the demographic and electoral makeup of each constituency to make a constituency-level prediction. 

More in Common adds: "MRP models don’t account for local factors that impact a small number of constituencies, such as a popular incumbent, well-known or controversial council policy Therefore it would be a mistake to draw too much from the projected vote share in an individual constituency."

In Winchester, the candidates in alphabetical order, are: Independent, Chris Barfoot; Liberal Democrat, Danny Chambers; Independent, Kevin D'Cruze; Social Democratic Party, Andrew Davis; Labour, Hannah Dawson; Conservative, Flick Drummond; Green, Lorraine Estelle; Hampshire Independents, Andy Liming; and Reform UK, Sean Whelan.